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Markets / Physics / Neutrino physics

At least one neutrino has a Majorana mass component.

Does a light neutrino have a mass component that connects it to its own antiparticle? The absence of a detected signal would not by itself prove NO.

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Last reading Nov 14, 2026 07:21 PM EST.

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Each dot is one recorded reading, thinned to hourly for readability; the underlying samples are every few minutes. The line between two dots is not a measurement. A round published before the first recorded price stays off the chart, because there was no market to read; you can still open it from the round list. How the AI estimate is made.

Buy YES or NO

You buy YES or NO with USDC, in your own wallet, through Jupiter. This site never holds your money.

YES 34¢current price
Pool depth
$86
24h volume
$0
Buy YES  34¢
Token address
F9cYSB3ZM5s6s9Cw2SHwErjp8FUsfkrEkBPmUP3iXgNN
NO 66¢current price
Pool depth
$164
24h volume
$0
Buy NO  66¢
Token address
FPYUdvjnfyuGdRtzFwDHKGZgaBKsd1qaCBXRa6r73zqj

Verify the market on-chain ↗ · Reading is open to everyone. Trading is subject to the terms and the access rules.

Weekly AI estimate

34% This week · Nov 10, 2026 09:28 PM EST

The average of three models reading the same evidence. It is an estimate, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it does not set the pool price.

Range
3–50%
Verdict
Undecided

The panel's confident binary this round Undecided the models did not all agree

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
OpenAI 50% Anthropic 3% xAI 50% Average 34%
Market definition · YES, NO and evidence rules

This is the frozen contract wording. Read the YES and NO tests, the evidence requirements and the undecided cases before taking a position.

Canonical title

At least one light active neutrino has a Majorana mass component.

Exact hypothesis · technical wording

At least one of the three light neutrino mass eigenstates participating in ordinary weak interactions has a nonzero Majorana mass component, violating total lepton number by two units. This does not require all three states to be pure Majorana particles or require light-neutrino exchange to dominate a nuclear decay.

Each round reads the evidence that was public at a stated cutoff. Later evidence goes into a later round; the market itself has no expiry date.

How the evidence cutoff is fixed

A round only counts evidence published before its own cutoff time, and the round's number is that timestamp. So a round cannot borrow a later cutoff, and an earlier round's judgment cannot be reused for a later one. The hypothesis wording, the resolution criteria and the methodology identifier were hashed into the market account at creation, which is what stops any of them being edited afterwards.

Resolution criteria

YES: A neutrinoless double-beta-decay signal with global background-only rejection >= 5 sigma in each of two independently acquired experiments, with lepton-number-violating interpretation established and backgrounds controlled, or an equally direct replicated measurement establishing the specified Majorana component. NO: A verified theory plus independent measurements establishes an exact protecting lepton-number symmetry that forbids every specified Majorana mass term. Finite half-life limits cannot prove a component is exactly zero; mass-ordering constraints and an absent decay signal leave this market UNDECIDED. Reference sources: PDG: Double beta decay (https://pdg.lbl.gov/2025/listings/rpp2025-list-double-beta-decay.pdf); PDG: Conservation laws (https://pdg.lbl.gov/2025/reviews/rpp2025-rev-conservation-laws.pdf). Evidence policy: use public primary research with methods and uncertainty, plus the named reference sources below. A preprint can inform the estimate but cannot alone meet a terminal criterion; require a peer-reviewed primary result and an independent reproduction using non-overlapping observations or independently prepared samples, unless this is a mathematical proof or the specific criterion instead requires independently implemented calculations. Report data provenance, exclusions, calibration, statistical model and systematic uncertainty. Independence means different data acquisition, not two papers reanalysing the same sample. For a quantitative terminal test, both independent results must meet the stated threshold; disagreement or an interval crossing the boundary means UNDECIDED. Use the final corrected version public at the signed round's evidence cutoff (UTC); exclude later evidence until a later eligible round. Every report in a terminal round must use the same cutoff, covered by the verified signed context and enforced by the configured terminal protocol; a different cutoff requires a new eligible round, never reinterpretation of a signed report or mutation of an immutable binding. This market has no calendar expiry. Retracted findings cannot supply a terminal result. If a named source disappears, use its DOI/publisher or an archived identical version, then an equivalent primary publication applying these unchanged definitions; if none is accessible, remain UNDECIDED, never substitute a different test. Missing data, failed replication, a null search outside the specified domain, or an untested alternative is not automatically NO. These are instructions for evidence assessment, not an automatic truth oracle: scientific interpretation and systematic-error judgment remain. Settlement follows the configured platform mode: terminal mode requires one valid round with all three frozen models returning the same explicit YES or NO and criterion_met=true; any UNDECIDED, failure or disagreement leaves it unresolved. Legacy proposal/challenge mode requires its recorded review process. Model agreement does not prove scientific truth. Invalidity is not NO and this text does not authorize a refund or cancellation: only a cancellation rule disclosed before exposure, if the configured contract supports it, can apply. Otherwise pause new entries and preserve holders' existing rights. Never reinterpret terms after listing.

The definition does not change when an AI estimate changes. Read the listing policy and this market's settlement status.

Frozen by hash on Solana

The hashes below were written into the market account when it was created, before any token was issued. Each one is SHA-256 over the exact text named in its label, shown on this page: the hypothesis paragraph under Exact hypothesis, the paragraph under Resolution criteria, and the identifier in the table below. The program cannot change them afterwards, and this site cannot rewrite them to match an edit.

SHA-256 of claim — the hypothesis paragraph
c17ae8c9d3cee6d1e16aa69b06e9bdadb7a2f2c85d037b813f4479b969e32f9b
SHA-256 of resolution_criteria — the criteria paragraph
9068fd1c870e8cf297076f9bcba9af1351bb4d4e8309383f3af8a1f2da2ee600
SHA-256 of methodology — the identifier science-2026-10-15-audit2
e7bf44caa2fed4e799d8e8a8cc7ec49cfc95af1bf7ae5b24ed2a4e875de0c91b
Context commitment
df98265e0c2603f036a5f2593108ca2c9c9e4ac39e59208735d098c172f7df0c
Market account
999vah1mgXnopLdL2ZayNN1TKCGNRbF4RUy29CJnvGF1

These are the token mints the contract issued for this market. A swap takes one of them as the token to buy.

YES token mint
F9cYSB3ZM5s6s9Cw2SHwErjp8FUsfkrEkBPmUP3iXgNN
NO token mint
FPYUdvjnfyuGdRtzFwDHKGZgaBKsd1qaCBXRa6r73zqj

Read those hashes off the market account on Solana Explorer — an explorer link is not a verified-build badge.

A hash commits to bytes, not to meaning. It proves the wording was not swapped or edited after issuance. It does not prove the wording is complete, the evidence is sound, or that the deployed program cannot be upgraded.

How each model argued

Three models read the same evidence and did not fully agree. Their average is 0.34.

This round ran under methodology panel-v9. Short excerpts are below; the round 5 page keeps the full answers, sources and raw responses. The current methodology and example requests do not reconstruct this historical round's exact request.

OpenAI UNDECIDED 0.50

openai/gpt-6.1-sol

I interpret the hypothesis as allowing arbitrarily small Majorana components, not requiring light-neutrino-dominated decay. Current searches provide limits rather than replicated signals, and no verified exact protecting symmetry is…

Would change this view: Two independently acquired, background-controlled five-sigma lepton-number-violating signals would raise my estimate; independently verified exact protection against every specified Majorana term would lower it.

Full explanation from OpenAI→
Anthropic UNDECIDED 0.03

anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5

No 0νββ signal exists. The latest results are limits: KamLAND-Zen T1/2 > 3.8e26 yr, LEGEND-200 > 1.9e26 yr, and CUORE's limit. Neutrinos could still have a Majorana mass component, so the YES criterion is unmet. Nothing establishes an…

Would change this view: Two independent experiments each reporting a ≥5σ, peer-reviewed 0νββ peak would move this to YES. A verified exact lepton-number symmetry would move it to NO.

Full explanation from Anthropic→
xAI UNDECIDED 0.50

x-ai/grok-4.7

No experiment reports a neutrinoless double-beta signal at 5σ. LEGEND-200 combined with GERDA and MAJORANA finds no evidence, and PDG 2025 quotes only half-life limits (KamLAND-Zen). No result establishes an exact lepton-number symmetry…

Would change this view: Two independent ≥5σ 0νββ signals with controlled backgrounds, or a proven symmetry forbidding every light Majorana mass.

Full explanation from xAI→

What moved the number

—
Oct 16

This is a new contract, not a migrated position or a continuation of old forecast history. The initial 0.50 is an initialization convention, not an AI forecast or an assessed scientific probability. Reference links are background sources,…

Nov 10
0.37 0.34 −2.3

OpenAI estimated 0.50. I interpret the hypothesis as allowing arbitrarily small Majorana components, not requiring light-neutrino-dominated decay. Current searches provide limits rather than replicated signals, and no verified exact……

This round's saved score, answers and sources →
Nov 9
0.37 0.37 0.0 no model output

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's saved score, answers and sources →
Oct 19

OpenAI estimated 0.50. I interpret the hypothesis as allowing any nonzero Majorana component, not merely one accessible to present decay searches. The checked primary result supplies a finite limit, not the required independently…

This round's saved score, answers and sources →
—
Oct 19
The evidence packet · 5 entries

What the panel was shown when this round ran. A row with no source link is a description only, and the panel is told so.

PDG: Double beta decay

Context

Lists half-life limits and the assumptions behind effective Majorana mass extraction.

Source link

PDG: Conservation laws

Context

Explains lepton-number-violating processes and Majorana mass terms.

Source link

Required positive observation

Supporting

A neutrinoless double-beta-decay signal with global background-only rejection >= 5 sigma in each of two independently acquired experiments, with lepton-number-violating interpretation established and backgrounds controlled, or an equally direct replicated measurement establishing the specified Majorana component.

Description only · no source link recorded

Required contrary observation

Contrary

A verified theory plus independent measurements establishes an exact protecting lepton-number symmetry that forbids every specified Majorana mass term. Finite half-life limits cannot prove a component is exactly zero; mass-ordering constraints and an absent decay signal leave this market UNDECIDED.

Description only · no source link recorded

Eligibility and unresolved outcomes

Method

Evidence policy: use public primary research with methods and uncertainty, plus the named reference sources below. A preprint can inform the estimate but cannot alone meet a terminal criterion; require a peer-reviewed primary result and an independent reproduction using non-overlapping observations or independently prepared samples, unless this is a mathematical proof or the specific criterion instead requires independently implemented calculations. Report data provenance, exclusions, calibration, statistical model and systematic uncertainty. Independence means different data acquisition, not two papers reanalysing the same sample. For a quantitative terminal test, both independent results must meet the stated threshold; disagreement or an interval crossing the boundary means UNDECIDED. Use the final corrected version public at the signed round's evidence cutoff (UTC); exclude later evidence until a later eligible round. Every report in a terminal round must use the same cutoff, covered by the verified signed context and enforced by the configured terminal protocol; a different cutoff requires a new eligible round, never reinterpretation of a signed report or mutation of an immutable binding. This market has no calendar expiry. Retracted findings cannot supply a terminal result. If a named source disappears, use its DOI/publisher or an archived identical version, then an equivalent primary publication applying these unchanged definitions; if none is accessible, remain UNDECIDED, never substitute a different test. Missing data, failed replication, a null search outside the specified domain, or an untested alternative is not automatically NO. These are instructions for evidence assessment, not an automatic truth oracle: scientific interpretation and systematic-error judgment remain. Settlement follows the configured platform mode: terminal mode requires one valid round with all three frozen models returning the same explicit YES or NO and criterion_met=true; any UNDECIDED, failure or disagreement leaves it unresolved. Legacy proposal/challenge mode requires its recorded review process. Model agreement does not prove scientific truth. Invalidity is not NO and this text does not authorize a refund or cancellation: only a cancellation rule disclosed before exposure, if the configured contract supports it, can apply. Otherwise pause new entries and preserve holders' existing rights. Never reinterpret terms after listing.

Description only · no source link recorded

Past estimates

Every weekly estimate, newest first
DateEstimateRange
Nov 10, 2026 09:28 PM EST 34% 3–50%
Nov 09, 2026 09:25 AM EST 37% no live reading
Nov 02, 2026 09:25 AM EST 37% no live reading
Oct 26, 2026 10:25 AM EDT 37% no live reading
Oct 19, 2026 07:04 PM EDT 37% 10–50%

Discussion

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