Round 5
One saved weekly assessment of At least one light active neutrino has a Majorana mass component., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.
- Published
- Nov 10, 2026 09:28 PM EST
- Estimate
- 34%
- Range the models covered
- 3–50%
- Confident binary
- No unanimous verdict this round.
- Methodology
- panel-v9
- Round hash
16a75d4fd88b6ecaba2b401755777301ff64b880fdd1877e532cbc1ee5a20409
The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.
openai/gpt-6.1-sol
I interpret the hypothesis as allowing arbitrarily small Majorana components, not requiring light-neutrino-dominated decay. Current searches provide limits rather than replicated signals, and no verified exact protecting symmetry is established; neither resolution criterion is met. These null results constrain parameter space but scarcely distinguish this broad hypothesis from its contrary, motivating a neutral estimate.
What would change this view: Two independently acquired, background-controlled five-sigma lepton-number-violating signals would raise my estimate; independently verified exact protection against every specified Majorana term would lower it.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5
No 0νββ signal exists. The latest results are limits: KamLAND-Zen T1/2 > 3.8e26 yr, LEGEND-200 > 1.9e26 yr, and CUORE's limit. Neutrinos could still have a Majorana mass component, so the YES criterion is unmet. Nothing establishes an exact lepton-number symmetry, so NO is unmet too. Limits can't set a Majorana component to exactly zero, so the market stays undecided.
What would change this view: Two independent experiments each reporting a ≥5σ, peer-reviewed 0νββ peak would move this to YES. A verified exact lepton-number symmetry would move it to NO.
x-ai/grok-4.7
No experiment reports a neutrinoless double-beta signal at 5σ. LEGEND-200 combined with GERDA and MAJORANA finds no evidence, and PDG 2025 quotes only half-life limits (KamLAND-Zen). No result establishes an exact lepton-number symmetry forbidding a light Majorana mass, and null limits cannot prove that component is zero.
What would change this view: Two independent ≥5σ 0νββ signals with controlled backgrounds, or a proven symmetry forbidding every light Majorana mass.
Round 5: score 0.34
OpenAI estimated 0.50. I interpret the hypothesis as allowing arbitrarily small Majorana components, not requiring light-neutrino-dominated decay. Current searches provide limits rather than replicated signals, and no verified exact… Anthropic estimated 0.03. No 0νββ signal exists. The latest results are limits: KamLAND-Zen T1/2 > 3.8e26 yr, LEGEND-200 > 1.9e26 yr, and CUORE's limit. Neutrinos could still have a Majorana mass component, so the YES criterion is unmet. Nothing… xAI estimated 0.50. No experiment reports a neutrinoless double-beta signal at 5σ. LEGEND-200 combined with GERDA and MAJORANA finds no evidence, and PDG 2025 quotes only half-life limits (KamLAND-Zen). No result establishes an exact… The panel disagreed by 0.47, so read this average as soft. The three models did not return a unanimous confident binary, so the market is not decided.
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