How it works

The hypothesis comes first

Every market fixes its wording and its resolution rule before it opens. Read both before you buy. There is no end date: the market stays open until the rule is met. You can sell into the pool at any time trading is open, though nobody promises a buyer at a price you like. What you get back depends on liquidity, fees and the price when you sell.

The weekly AI estimate is a reading of the evidence. Three models look at the same material and publish their reasoning. That estimate does not move the pool price. The same three models do decide settlement, and there they all have to return the same verdict.

Buy YES or NO

YES and NO trade in two separate Raydium pools, each paired with USDC. Each pool's price moves when people buy and sell in it, and the chart records the result. A YES price of 40¢ means $0.40 for one YES token, before swap fees and price impact. Read the price as the market's odds, not as a scientific certainty.

Two other actions sit behind the pools, and the fees page calls them minting and merging. Minting means depositing 1 USDC to receive one YES and one NO together. Merging is the reverse: hand back one YES and one NO, and get your 1 USDC back. The market always holds exactly as many YES tokens as NO tokens, so a complete pair is worth 1 USDC at any time. That keeps the two pool prices near each other. Fees, thin liquidity and trading costs can still leave a gap.

Each chart shows one pool's recorded price at a point in time. It is not a quote for your order.

This site does not run swaps and never holds your keys. The wallet and Raydium guide walks through the steps in your own wallet. Access restrictions apply: trading is not available from the United States or other restricted countries.

What backs the tokens

Creating a complete YES + NO pair locks 1 USDC in the market's reserve, and that reserve is what pays winners. The mint fee is charged on top of the 1 USDC and goes to a separate fee account.

After final resolution, a winning token redeems for 1 USDC before the redemption fee. A losing token pays zero. At a 2% redemption fee, one winning token would leave you 0.98 USDC. The rate on each market page is the one that applies; the 2% above is an example.

There is no borrowing, leverage, funding payment or liquidation. You can lose everything you put in. Collateral does not protect you from a USDC depeg, a program bug, an oracle failure, thin liquidity or a legal problem.

Sell, or wait for final resolution

While trading is open you can sell in the pool. Liquidity, fees and price impact decide what you get, and a buyer at your price is not guaranteed.

A weekly estimate is not a price you can cash out at. Final settlement follows the rule frozen on the market page: all three models must return the same explicit YES or NO, and that result must verify as finalized on chain. There is no appeal. Missing or invalid reports, disagreement, or an UNDECIDED verdict all leave the market open. A market that is paused, or not yet bound to a deployed program, records no outcome.

Settlement sends money nowhere on its own. To get paid, redeem your winning tokens from your own wallet: each one burns for 1 USDC less the disclosed fee, in a transaction you sign. The wallet guide walks through it step by step.

Read the resolution status and the frozen criteria before you buy. A model consensus is not proof of scientific truth, and you can be right about the science and still lose money.

Check the contract, not a promise

The contract enforces the collateral and payout arithmetic. What it cannot enforce is the quality of the evidence, which depends on trusted adapters, and the behavior of an upgradeable program. Read the contract rules, current source and trust limits.