Risk disclosure

Science Markets is operated by Conner Productions LLC, and built by Conner Lambden. The company and the person are named on the about page, along with the contact address: [email protected].

• Science Markets is not a registered exchange or clearinghouse. No designated contract market, derivatives clearing organization, swap execution facility, or broker registration exists, and none is implied by anything on this site.
• No CFTC or SEC approval covers this product. Nothing here is CFTC-approved, SEC-approved, or approved by any state regulator, and no scientific probability shown here carries a regulator's endorsement.
• Nothing here is a license, a permit, or an anticipated license. We do not publish a pending application as though it were granted, and a partner's registration does not belong to Science Markets and is not ours to describe as ours.
• No promise of indefinite operation. A market is designed to run without a scheduled expiry. That is not a guarantee that the platform, the collateral issuer, the model providers, or the resolution process will keep running.

Trading is not available from the United States. It is also blocked from Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria and other restricted countries, and the terms set the age and access rules in full. Access is checked at the site and before funded actions. Location, age, sanctions and wallet screening are enforced there, and a request whose location cannot be determined is refused rather than allowed.

These checks govern this website. They do not stop anyone from trading the outcome tokens directly on Raydium or through the on-chain program without this site, and using a VPN or similar tool to get around them breaks the terms.

Each market is one fixed scientific hypothesis with two outcome tokens, YES and NO. A complete set is 1 USDC of collateral, held in that market's reserve. A winning token redeems for 1 USDC less the market's redemption fee; a losing token pays nothing.

There is no leverage, no borrowing, no margin call and no liquidation. The most you can lose is what you put in, plus the fees you paid. A position can also be worth less than you paid long before settlement, and a market that never settles can leave you with no exit at a price you want.

• The oracle is the operator. A signed report proves who submitted it, not that the assessment is honest, well-sourced, or calibrated. The three models can share a mistake, a source, or a framing, and their agreement is weaker corroboration than three independent firms would give.
• The estimate can be influenced. Coordinated publication, prompt injection aimed at the retrieval pipeline, or a fabricated source could move a round. Our mitigations are process controls, not proofs.
• Your money can stay committed. A complete YES + NO pair locks 1 USDC. Collateral can remain locked for a long time if the market never settles. Selling before settlement depends on pool liquidity, not a guaranteed exit.
• Model and provider risk. Providers change models without notice. A round produced under a different model version is not the same instrument, and we publish each round's model identifiers so a change is visible.
• Wallet-only does not mean trustless. You still depend on the operator's evidence and signed reports, the model providers, any program upgrade authority, Raydium execution and USDC's issuer, including freeze and depeg risk. Settlement has no appeal once a market's binding is active, and agreement can be wrong.
• Code risk. The payout arithmetic is tested, but an on-chain implementation carries smart-contract, upgrade-authority and token-program risks that no test suite can rule out.
• USDC is not insured. It can lose its dollar peg, be frozen by its issuer, or face issuer and redemption risk. This is a USDC-denominated instrument, and we do not insure the token's value.
• Being right about the science is not enough. The pools price independently of the weekly AI guidance. Model agreement does not prove scientific truth, and you can be right about the science and still lose money.

• Returns, yield and profit are not promised.
• Nothing here asserts the panel is accurate. It is an AI estimate, not truth.
• No guarantee that any market settles, or settles within any time.
• No guarantee of liquidity or of an available exit quote.
• No guarantee of continued operation.
• No leverage, borrowing, margin, liquidation or funding-rate payments.