Round 1
One saved weekly assessment of At least one light active neutrino has a Majorana mass component., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.
- Published
- Oct 19, 2026 07:04 PM EDT
- Estimate
- 37%
- Range the models covered
- 10–50%
- Confident binary
- No unanimous verdict this round.
- Methodology
- panel-v9
- Round hash
4fafa8806e8bba0c02252b47c1bd0c01eefa3657322851aedad507b456db894a
The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.
openai/gpt-6.1-sol
I interpret the hypothesis as allowing any nonzero Majorana component, not merely one accessible to present decay searches. The checked primary result supplies a finite limit, not the required independently replicated discovery; no verified exact protecting symmetry is established either. These observations do not discriminate sufficiently between the literal hypothesis and its contrary, motivating 0.50 rather than treating nondetection as evidence of exactly zero mass.
What would change this view: Independent, peer-reviewed lepton-number-violating detections meeting both five-sigma thresholds would strongly raise my estimate and support YES.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5
No experiment has seen a neutrinoless double-beta-decay signal. LEGEND-200 (T½ > 1.9×10^26 yr, Ge-76) and the full KamLAND-Zen 800 dataset (Xe-136) both report limits only, so the YES criterion is unmet. The NO criterion also fails, because no verified exact lepton-number symmetry exists and finite limits cannot show a Majorana component is zero. Theory favors Majorana masses, but the evidence does not settle the question.
What would change this view: Two independent experiments each reporting a peer-reviewed ≥5σ 0νββ peak with controlled backgrounds would move this to YES; a verified exact lepton-number symmetry would move it to NO.
x-ai/grok-4.7
No public primary result meets the YES bar of two independent >=5 sigma 0νββ signals with a controlled lepton-number-violating interpretation. PDG 2025 and KamLAND-Zen report half-life limits and no excess, which cannot prove a Majorana component is exactly zero, and no verified protecting lepton-number symmetry has been established.
What would change this view: Two independent >=5σ 0νββ signals with controlled backgrounds, or a verified exact lepton-number symmetry, would move this.
Round 1: score 0.37
OpenAI estimated 0.50. I interpret the hypothesis as allowing any nonzero Majorana component, not merely one accessible to present decay searches. The checked primary result supplies a finite limit, not the required independently replicated… Anthropic estimated 0.10. No experiment has seen a neutrinoless double-beta-decay signal. LEGEND-200 (T½ > 1.9×10^26 yr, Ge-76) and the full KamLAND-Zen 800 dataset (Xe-136) both report limits only, so the YES criterion is unmet. The NO… xAI estimated 0.50. No public primary result meets the YES bar of two independent >=5 sigma 0νββ signals with a controlled lepton-number-violating interpretation. PDG 2025 and KamLAND-Zen report half-life limits and no excess, which cannot… The panel disagreed by 0.40, so read this average as soft. The three models did not return a unanimous confident binary, so the market is not decided.
No audit bundle is recorded for this round. A bundle from another round is not substituted for it.