Science Markets

Research updates

What the models concluded, and the research behind each update. Open a market to read the reasoning and sources.

Nov 9, 2026
New particles supply more than half of cosmological dark matter. no model output
AI estimate 0.66 0.66 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
DMAT round 4
Dark energy stays within 0.05 of w = −1 over redshifts zero to two in the CPL model. no model output
AI estimate 0.13 0.13 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
DEOS round 4
A QCD axion dynamically relaxes the strong-CP angle. no model output
AI estimate 0.28 0.28 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
AXION round 4
The eukaryotic host lineage arose within Asgard archaea. no model output
AI estimate 0.66 0.66 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
ASGARD round 4
Nov 2, 2026
Pure water has a metastable liquid–liquid critical point between 150 and 250 K. no model output
AI estimate 0.61 0.61 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
WATER round 3
RNA alone can sustain full replication through serial dilution. no model output
AI estimate 0.25 0.25 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
RNA round 3
The Riemann hypothesis is true. no model output
AI estimate 0.60 0.60 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
RIEM round 3
Efficient quantum sampling exceeds efficient classical sampling. no model output
AI estimate 0.49 0.49 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
QSUP round 3
P equals NP. no model output
AI estimate 0.10 0.10 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
PNP round 3
The proton's partial lifetime for positron–neutral-pion decay is below 10^35 years. no model output
AI estimate 0.27 0.27 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
PDEC round 3
At least one light active neutrino has a Majorana mass component. no model output
AI estimate 0.37 0.37 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
NUMA round 3
Unforced three-dimensional Navier–Stokes flow remains globally smooth. no model output
AI estimate 0.36 0.36 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
NS3D round 4
Standardized adult dentate-neuron surviving additions exceed 0.1% in one year. no model output
AI estimate 0.44 0.44 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
NEUR round 3
Pure iron favours bcc over hcp at 330 GPa and 6000 K. no model output
AI estimate 0.13 0.13 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
IRON round 3
Enceladus's ocean supports indigenous reproducing cellular life. no model output
AI estimate 0.20 0.20 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
ENCL round 3
Preindustrial Charney climate sensitivity exceeds 3 °C. no model output
AI estimate 0.41 0.41 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
ECS3 round 3
New particles supply more than half of cosmological dark matter. no model output
AI estimate 0.66 0.66 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
DMAT round 3
Dark energy stays within 0.05 of w = −1 over redshifts zero to two in the CPL model. no model output
AI estimate 0.13 0.13 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
DEOS round 3
A QCD axion dynamically relaxes the strong-CP angle. no model output
AI estimate 0.28 0.28 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
AXION round 3
The eukaryotic host lineage arose within Asgard archaea. no model output
AI estimate 0.66 0.66 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
ASGARD round 3
Oct 26, 2026
Pure water has a metastable liquid–liquid critical point between 150 and 250 K. no model output
AI estimate 0.61 0.61 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
WATER round 2
RNA alone can sustain full replication through serial dilution. no model output
AI estimate 0.25 0.25 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
RNA round 2
The Riemann hypothesis is true. no model output
AI estimate 0.60 0.60 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
RIEM round 2
Efficient quantum sampling exceeds efficient classical sampling. no model output
AI estimate 0.49 0.49 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
QSUP round 2
P equals NP. no model output
AI estimate 0.10 0.10 0.0
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable an… Read update

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

This round's record and sources →
PNP round 2
About these updates

Three models receive the same stored packet and can search separately when web search is enabled. Items marked "no model output" are placeholders, not new assessments. Methodology