Science Markets
Markets / QSUP / Round 3

Round 3

One saved weekly assessment of Efficient quantum sampling exceeds efficient classical sampling., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.

The round
Published
Nov 02, 2026 09:33 AM EST
Estimate
49%
Model spread
This round did not come from three live models, so it has no model spread to show.
Confident binary
No unanimous verdict this round.
Methodology
panel-v9
Round hash
96f6d992ed00fba0f3dda04f115373c5d2f79ba8e377eeb667f7e529f767500e

The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.

What each model said
OpenAI 0.46

local-fallback

No model provider is configured in this build, so this number is a deterministic placeholder around the market's prior score. It is not model output and should not be read as an assessment.

No sources recorded for this answer.

Anthropic 0.49

local-fallback

No model provider is configured in this build, so this number is a deterministic placeholder around the market's prior score. It is not model output and should not be read as an assessment.

No sources recorded for this answer.

xAI 0.52

local-fallback

No model provider is configured in this build, so this number is a deterministic placeholder around the market's prior score. It is not model output and should not be read as an assessment.

No sources recorded for this answer.

The round note and its sources

Round 3: score 0.49

Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.

Audit bundle

No audit bundle is recorded for this round. A bundle from another round is not substituted for it.

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