Round 5
One saved weekly assessment of Pure water has a metastable liquid–liquid critical point between 150 and 250 K., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.
- Published
- Nov 10, 2026 09:21 PM EST
- Estimate
- 58%
- Range the models covered
- 35–76%
- Confident binary
- No unanimous verdict this round.
- Methodology
- panel-v9
- Round hash
e50d3f366e836924005c2dd7843160f80abeb3de3d864c86dfee59b85fb9cea9
The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.
openai/gpt-6.1-sol
The experimental critical-region signatures and molecular-model results support the hypothesis, interpreted as equilibrated bulk liquids rather than transient amorphous conversion. However, the accessible evidence does not establish independently reproduced coexistence, equilibration and critical scaling at measured pressures within the domain; calibration and systematic uncertainties were not fully verifiable. Neither the positive criterion nor a domain-wide thermodynamic exclusion is established.
What would change this view: Independent pressure-calibrated experiments reproducing equilibrated liquid coexistence and endpoint scaling before crystallization would substantially increase my estimate and could establish YES.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5
You et al. (Science 2026) is a peer-reviewed experiment that places an LLCP near 210 K and about 100 MPa, which is inside the domain. It is a single study using transient liquids heated from amorphous ices. It has no independent reproduction, and the correlation length and full coexistence-line scaling were not measured. The criterion needs independent replication, and no thermodynamic reconstruction excludes the critical point, so neither YES nor NO is established.
What would change this view: An independent, differently prepared experiment showing critical scaling and a coexistence line would move this toward YES; a validated reconstruction excluding the critical point in the whole domain would move it toward NO.
x-ai/grok-4.7
You et al. (Science, 2026) report critical-like scattering and a heat-capacity rise at 210±8 K after ultrafast heating of amorphous ices, and independent simulations place an LLCP near 198 K and ~127 MPa. That is supportive but not decisive: one unreplicated experiment does not establish equilibrated bulk liquids, a coexistence line, or the pressure bound, and simulations cannot meet YES. No reconstruction excludes the line across the full domain.
What would change this view: Independent replication of equilibrated bulk coexistence and in-window critical scaling would support YES; a validated full-domain exclusion would support NO.
Round 5: score 0.58
OpenAI estimated 0.76. The experimental critical-region signatures and molecular-model results support the hypothesis, interpreted as equilibrated bulk liquids rather than transient amorphous conversion. However, the accessible evidence does… Anthropic estimated 0.35. You et al. (Science 2026) is a peer-reviewed experiment that places an LLCP near 210 K and about 100 MPa, which is inside the domain. It is a single study using transient liquids heated from amorphous ices. It has no… xAI estimated 0.63. You et al. (Science, 2026) report critical-like scattering and a heat-capacity rise at 210±8 K after ultrafast heating of amorphous ices, and independent simulations place an LLCP near 198 K and ~127 MPa. That is… The panel disagreed by 0.41, so read this average as soft. The three models did not return a unanimous confident binary, so the market is not decided.
No audit bundle is recorded for this round. A bundle from another round is not substituted for it.