Round 1
One saved weekly assessment of Efficient quantum sampling exceeds efficient classical sampling., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.
- Published
- Oct 19, 2026 07:06 PM EDT
- Estimate
- 49%
- Range the models covered
- 2–85%
- Confident binary
- No unanimous verdict this round.
- Methodology
- panel-v9
- Round hash
690d771f16c704b3a67467e869ee7ba0e6a6e2e048abf82a90554308375f5a1e
The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.
openai/gpt-6.1-sol
I interpret the hypothesis as an unrelativized separation under the stated uniform, total-variation approximation definition. Aaronson–Arkhipov provides substantial but conditional support: approximate-sampling hardness requires unproved permanent conjectures and polynomial-hierarchy noncollapse. The newer oracle separation strengthens plausibility but supplies neither the required unconditional separation nor an equality proof.
What would change this view: A verified unconditional ZFC equality proof would reverse my estimate; an unconditional separation matching these definitions would establish the hypothesis.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5
An unconditional ZFC separation of SampBQP and SampBPP would imply major open separations such as P≠PSPACE. No such proof exists. Aaronson–Arkhipov and Aaronson–Chen give only conditional hardness (PH noncollapse, conjectures) or oracle separations. No proof of equality exists either. The search found only a space-bounded separation, which does not meet the criterion.
What would change this view: A peer-reviewed ZFC proof of a time-bounded SampBQP versus SampBPP separation, or of equality, would move this. Nothing like that is known.
x-ai/grok-4.7
No unconditional ZFC proof separates or equates SampBQP and SampBPP under the stated uniform total-variation definition. Aaronson’s equivalence reduces the separation to FBQP versus FBPP, which is open, and Aaronson–Arkhipov hardness assumes the polynomial hierarchy does not collapse. Shallow-circuit sampling separations use a different classical model and do not settle these classes.
What would change this view: A peer-reviewed unconditional ZFC proof of separation, or of equality, under this exact uniform TV and runtime definition.
Round 1: score 0.49
OpenAI estimated 0.85. I interpret the hypothesis as an unrelativized separation under the stated uniform, total-variation approximation definition. Aaronson–Arkhipov provides substantial but conditional support: approximate-sampling hardness… Anthropic estimated 0.02. An unconditional ZFC separation of SampBQP and SampBPP would imply major open separations such as P≠PSPACE. No such proof exists. Aaronson–Arkhipov and Aaronson–Chen give only conditional hardness (PH noncollapse… xAI estimated 0.60. No unconditional ZFC proof separates or equates SampBQP and SampBPP under the stated uniform total-variation definition. Aaronson’s equivalence reduces the separation to FBQP versus FBPP, which is open, and… The panel disagreed by 0.83, so read this average as soft. The three models did not return a unanimous confident binary, so the market is not decided.
No audit bundle is recorded for this round. A bundle from another round is not substituted for it.