Round 5
One saved weekly assessment of RNA alone can sustain full replication through serial dilution., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.
- Published
- Nov 10, 2026 09:23 PM EST
- Estimate
- 28%
- Range the models covered
- 2–55%
- Confident binary
- No unanimous verdict this round.
- Methodology
- panel-v9
- Round hash
ef4cf00f4e51b5a6961f65bedb1c7227ce8914b048d27e7e619e641355242f16
The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.
openai/gpt-6.1-sol
I interpret this as a claim of chemical capability, not that qualifying replication has already been demonstrated. Primary results support important components, but QT45 self-synthesis required a supplied hexamer and achieved approximately 0.17% yield; freeze–thaw replication does not establish complete replicase renewal. Neither two independent ten-transfer demonstrations nor a class-wide impossibility result is established by the checked evidence, leaving modest support for feasibility but substantial uncertainty.
What would change this view: Independent demonstrations of ten qualifying transfers with newly synthesized active replicase would strongly increase support; verified class-wide chemical constraints would decrease it.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5
No evidence shows a ten-transfer, two-laboratory demonstration of replicase self-renewal from triplet substrates. QT45 copies itself with about 0.2% yield over 72 days. The freeze–thaw work replicates only a 29-nt fragment of the ribozyme core. No impossibility proof exists either, so NO is not established and the call stays UNDECIDED.
What would change this view: Two independent peer-reviewed labs reporting ten isotope-traced transfers with full-length replicase recovery would move this to YES. A rigorous impossibility proof for the whole substrate/catalyst class would move it to NO.
x-ai/grok-4.7
Neither named primary result meets the ten-transfer, ≤10% retention, and concentration-recovery test. QT45 copies itself from trinucleotide substrates at ~0.2% yield in separate reactions; the freeze–thaw study shows limited exponential amplification, not dual-lab isotope-traced renewal of a full replicase. No chemical impossibility proof exists, so the claim is unresolved.
What would change this view: A peer-reviewed dual-lab ten-transfer result with isotope-traced full-length active replicase recovery would move this to YES.
Round 5: score 0.28
OpenAI estimated 0.55. I interpret this as a claim of chemical capability, not that qualifying replication has already been demonstrated. Primary results support important components, but QT45 self-synthesis required a supplied hexamer and… Anthropic estimated 0.02. No evidence shows a ten-transfer, two-laboratory demonstration of replicase self-renewal from triplet substrates. QT45 copies itself with about 0.2% yield over 72 days. The freeze–thaw work replicates only a 29-nt… xAI estimated 0.28. Neither named primary result meets the ten-transfer, ≤10% retention, and concentration-recovery test. QT45 copies itself from trinucleotide substrates at ~0.2% yield in separate reactions; the freeze–thaw study shows… The panel disagreed by 0.53, so read this average as soft. The three models did not return a unanimous confident binary, so the market is not decided.
No audit bundle is recorded for this round. A bundle from another round is not substituted for it.