Round 1
One saved weekly assessment of RNA alone can sustain full replication through serial dilution., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.
- Published
- Oct 19, 2026 07:08 PM EDT
- Estimate
- 25%
- Range the models covered
- 1–45%
- Confident binary
- No unanimous verdict this round.
- Methodology
- panel-v9
- Round hash
40afbdb1c30a99022509248b6f0e6f32f6c32ffc255cd07efa497f4d37fc25d5
The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.
openai/gpt-6.1-sol
I interpret “can” as chemical feasibility under the specified conditions, not merely partial copying. Primary results support important components, but QT45 self-synthesis required a prohibited hexamer and achieved only 0.17% yield; freeze–thaw replication copied only part of its catalyst. Neither establishes independently reproduced, ten-transfer renewal of every required catalyst, and neither supplies a class-wide impossibility result.
What would change this view: Independent, traced ten-transfer demonstrations meeting every substrate and activity constraint would strongly raise my estimate; a verified class-wide impossibility result would lower it.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5
The evidence does not show the required ten-transfer, two-lab, isotope-traced self-replication. QT45 copies itself at about 0.2% yield over 72 days. The freeze–thaw work replicates only fragments, and its dilution cycles gave diminishing returns. No rigorous impossibility result exists either, so NO is not established.
What would change this view: Two independent peer-reviewed labs showing ten transfers with isotope-traced new full-length replicase would move this to YES; a general chemical impossibility proof would move it to NO.
x-ai/grok-4.7
Named primary papers show trinucleotide-fed polymerase activity and partial exponential copying, but not the required integrated result. QT45 copies itself and its complement only in separate low-yield reactions; freeze–thaw work replicates a ribozyme fragment, not a full active replicase through ten ≤10% transfers with isotope-traced recovery. No chemical impossibility result exists, so the criterion is unmet.
What would change this view: Two independent labs’ ten ≤10% transfers with traced full-length active replicase recovery, or a verified class-wide impossibility proof, would flip the call.
Round 1: score 0.25
OpenAI estimated 0.45. I interpret “can” as chemical feasibility under the specified conditions, not merely partial copying. Primary results support important components, but QT45 self-synthesis required a prohibited hexamer and achieved only… Anthropic estimated 0.01. The evidence does not show the required ten-transfer, two-lab, isotope-traced self-replication. QT45 copies itself at about 0.2% yield over 72 days. The freeze–thaw work replicates only fragments, and its dilution… xAI estimated 0.28. Named primary papers show trinucleotide-fed polymerase activity and partial exponential copying, but not the required integrated result. QT45 copies itself and its complement only in separate low-yield reactions… The panel disagreed by 0.44, so read this average as soft. The three models did not return a unanimous confident binary, so the market is not decided.
No audit bundle is recorded for this round. A bundle from another round is not substituted for it.