Round 5
One saved weekly assessment of New particles supply more than half of cosmological dark matter., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.
- Published
- Nov 10, 2026 09:38 PM EST
- Estimate
- 68%
- Range the models covered
- 60–80%
- Confident binary
- No unanimous verdict this round.
- Methodology
- panel-v9
- Round hash
961cdd7f44bdd56fb5be5411bb9a974ae37b681ec062117c177c2304d54e8a64
The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.
openai/gpt-6.1-sol
Particle-dominated dark matter remains plausible, but gravitational abundance evidence does not identify its constituents. The checked sources establish neither independently replicated particle detections with a calibrated majority abundance nor a comprehensive upper bound below 50%; LZ constrains particular interactions, not the combined particle fraction. The numerical estimate therefore remains substantially judgmental.
What would change this view: Independent particle detections with calibrated cosmological abundance above 50%, or comprehensive replicated bounds below it, would resolve the principal uncertainty.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5
Most cosmologists expect dark matter to be mostly particles beyond the Standard Model. That is why the probability sits above 0.5. The criterion needs independent non-gravitational detections of a common species, and none exists. A comprehensive upper bound of 0.50 or less on all particle species has not been set either. Neither terminal condition is met, so the verdict is UNDECIDED. I did not run a live search.
What would change this view: Independent, reproduced non-gravitational detections of one particle species with a calibrated abundance would move this to YES. A comprehensive bound excluding all particle candidates would move it to NO.
No sources recorded for this answer.
x-ai/grok-4.7
PDG 2025 treats WIMPs, axions, and sterile neutrinos as unconfirmed candidates; the 3.5 keV feature is disfavored and direct searches give limits, not a calibrated abundance. No independent non-gravitational detections put a joint 95% interval wholly above 0.50, and no comprehensive 95% upper bound ≤0.50 covers all admitted BSM species, so the criterion stays UNDECIDED.
What would change this view: A replicated non-gravitational detection with a joint 95% BSM-particle fraction wholly above 0.50, or a comprehensive 95% bound ≤0.50, would flip the call.
Round 5: score 0.68
OpenAI estimated 0.80. Particle-dominated dark matter remains plausible, but gravitational abundance evidence does not identify its constituents. The checked sources establish neither independently replicated particle detections with a… Anthropic estimated 0.60. Most cosmologists expect dark matter to be mostly particles beyond the Standard Model. That is why the probability sits above 0.5. The criterion needs independent non-gravitational detections of a common species, and… xAI estimated 0.64. PDG 2025 treats WIMPs, axions, and sterile neutrinos as unconfirmed candidates; the 3.5 keV feature is disfavored and direct searches give limits, not a calibrated abundance. No independent non-gravitational detections… The panel disagreed by 0.20, so read this average as soft. The three models did not return a unanimous confident binary, so the market is not decided.
No audit bundle is recorded for this round. A bundle from another round is not substituted for it.