Round 1
One saved weekly assessment of New particles supply more than half of cosmological dark matter., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.
- Published
- Oct 19, 2026 07:00 PM EDT
- Estimate
- 66%
- Range the models covered
- 60–75%
- Confident binary
- No unanimous verdict this round.
- Methodology
- panel-v9
- Round hash
007915fb9c122ec320785b506428507739ef2cac8f1931f59edfd220c933cb3b
The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.
openai/gpt-6.1-sol
I interpret the fraction as cosmological nonbaryonic dark-matter mass, excluding primordial black holes from the numerator. Particle dominance is plausible, but the checked evidence supplies neither independently reproduced particle identifications with calibrated cosmological abundance nor a comprehensive upper bound on all particle species. LZ’s null result constrains particular interactions, not the combined fraction, so neither resolution criterion is met.
What would change this view: Independent detections establishing a cosmological particle fraction above 50%, or comprehensive independent bounds below it, would resolve the central uncertainty.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5.5
Most cosmologists expect dark matter to be mostly particles beyond the Standard Model, but no non-gravitational particle detection exists. The criterion therefore cannot give YES. A comprehensive bound of 50% or less on all particle species is also absent: PBHs are excluded from the numerator, and modified-gravity or other non-particle explanations are not ruled out. Neither terminal condition is met, so the verdict is UNDECIDED. I did not run a live search, so this rests on my background knowledge of the field.
What would change this view: A confirmed, independently replicated non-gravitational detection of a species with calibrated abundance would move this to YES. A comprehensive upper bound of 50% or less on all particle candidates would move it to NO.
No sources recorded for this answer.
x-ai/grok-4.7
PDG 2025 finds Standard Model neutrinos are at most about 1.6% of nonbaryonic matter, so nearly all of that density is unidentified. No non-gravitational detection calibrates a beyond-Standard-Model species above 50%, and asteroid-mass primordial black holes can still supply all of the dark matter, so neither terminal bound is met.
What would change this view: A replicated non-gravitational abundance with a 95% interval wholly above 0.50, or a 95% bound f_PBH≤0.50 in every mass window, would move this.
Round 1: score 0.66
OpenAI estimated 0.75. I interpret the fraction as cosmological nonbaryonic dark-matter mass, excluding primordial black holes from the numerator. Particle dominance is plausible, but the checked evidence supplies neither independently… Anthropic estimated 0.60. Most cosmologists expect dark matter to be mostly particles beyond the Standard Model, but no non-gravitational particle detection exists. The criterion therefore cannot give YES. A comprehensive bound of 50% or less on… xAI estimated 0.62. PDG 2025 finds Standard Model neutrinos are at most about 1.6% of nonbaryonic matter, so nearly all of that density is unidentified. No non-gravitational detection calibrates a beyond-Standard-Model species above 50%… The panel disagreed by 0.15, so read this average as soft. The three models did not return a unanimous confident binary, so the market is not decided.
No audit bundle is recorded for this round. A bundle from another round is not substituted for it.