Round 2
One saved weekly assessment of Preindustrial Charney climate sensitivity exceeds 3 °C., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.
- Published
- Oct 26, 2026 10:13 AM EDT
- Estimate
- 41%
- Model spread
- This round did not come from three live models, so it has no model spread to show.
- Confident binary
- No unanimous verdict this round.
- Methodology
- panel-v9
- Round hash
b1678aca4a6bdfbda2adf671799124947a5a6a7bf4015820821a4b33f738bca5
The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.
local-fallback
No model provider is configured in this build, so this number is a deterministic placeholder around the market's prior score. It is not model output and should not be read as an assessment.
No sources recorded for this answer.
local-fallback
No model provider is configured in this build, so this number is a deterministic placeholder around the market's prior score. It is not model output and should not be read as an assessment.
No sources recorded for this answer.
local-fallback
No model provider is configured in this build, so this number is a deterministic placeholder around the market's prior score. It is not model output and should not be read as an assessment.
No sources recorded for this answer.
Round 2: score 0.41
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.
No audit bundle is recorded for this round. A bundle from another round is not substituted for it.