Round 4
One saved weekly assessment of Standardized adult dentate-neuron surviving additions exceed 0.1% in one year., kept as it was published. It is an estimate from three models reading the evidence, not proof the hypothesis holds, and it did not set any price.
- Published
- Nov 09, 2026 09:20 AM EST
- Estimate
- 44%
- Model spread
- This round did not come from three live models, so it has no model spread to show.
- Confident binary
- No unanimous verdict this round.
- Methodology
- panel-v9
- Round hash
36d851f31ae217d9cc045cf3835a021a808ffd4f96723d5dbe6d496e36789dfd
The hash commits to this round's recorded bytes. It does not prove the wording is sound or that the science is right.
local-fallback
No model provider is configured in this build, so this number is a deterministic placeholder around the market's prior score. It is not model output and should not be read as an assessment.
No sources recorded for this answer.
local-fallback
No model provider is configured in this build, so this number is a deterministic placeholder around the market's prior score. It is not model output and should not be read as an assessment.
No sources recorded for this answer.
local-fallback
No model provider is configured in this build, so this number is a deterministic placeholder around the market's prior score. It is not model output and should not be read as an assessment.
No sources recorded for this answer.
Round 4: score 0.44
Live panel did not return all three estimates (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI failed or gave an unusable answer). A round is only live when all three are valid, so this round is a placeholder at the previous score rather than an average of two.
No audit bundle is recorded for this round. A bundle from another round is not substituted for it.